The Medical Guide to Holiday Movies

Anna Karenina lies febrile on her post-partum bed, her husband, Karenin, and lover, Vronsky, flanking her in sorrow. She repents to each, anticipating her end, and just when the romance soars to its peak, you wonder aloud — why does she have a fever? And, could this really happen?

Luckily, we’ve got Hollywood’s holiday ailments covered. Our unofficial disease guide takes a shot at unraveling the medical mysteries you’ll see woven throughout the biggest hits of the season.

Medical Guide to Holiday Movies

Denzel Washington plays a drug-addicted, alcoholic airline pilot who executes a miracle crash landing but is later blamed for the incident.

ALCOHOLISM

It turns out that drinking and flying is relatively rare. But that wasn’t true in the 1960s. A landmark article on aviation and alcohol found that in 35 percent of all fatal airline accidents in 1963, the pilots had measurable levels of alcohol in their blood. A disproportionate amount of these accidents occurred at night and most occurred within the first half-hour of flight.

So how does alcohol affect flight performance? One scientific article reports that blood alcohol concentrations in the range of 0.03 to 0.05-percent can impair performance of tasks like tracking radio-frequency signals, airport traffic control vectoring, traffic observation and avoidance, and aircraft descent. That’s about the amount present after just one drink for an average size adult.

POST-TRAUMATIC STRESS SYNDROME (PTSD)

According to the book, Aviation Mental Health, pilots may be at risk for PTSD if they’ve ever experienced an aircraft mishap or near mishap. Because of this, the airline industry has a program in place called the Critical Incident Response Program that guides pilots through any potential PTSD inciting events. In addition to this, Federal law requires that all airline employees and their families have access to such counseling programs when faced with significant incidents like aircraft accidents.

When it comes to needing medication however, pilots face a double-edged sword. While counseling services for psychiatric conditions like PTSD are not reportable to the FAA, the use of certain medications is. Pilots are required to report use of any psychotropic medications beyond common antidepressants and refrain from flying until they are medication-free.

Medical Guide to Holiday Movies

Daniel Day-Lewis and Sally Field recreate the spirit of America’s first power couple and highlight the staggering height difference between Abe and Mary Todd.

MARFAN SYNDROME

At 6 feet, 4 inchesl, Abe Lincoln towered nearly 9 inches taller than the average 1860s man. Like a taupe, tailless Na’vi from the movie Avatar, his long legs and spidery fingers intimidated adversaries near and far. But his stately frame was more than just a normal variant. Historians have speculated that Lincoln was afflicted with a rare genetic disorder called Marfan syndrome. The disorder affects connective tissues in the body, causing skeletal abnormalities, and problems with the heart, eyes, and lungs. In addition to being extraordinarily tall, people with Marfan’s are often lanky, with long, slender limbs (dolichostenomelia) and fingers (arachnodactyly).

Some experts argue however that Lincoln instead had a condition called multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2, or MEN2. People with this disorder can also be unusually tall. Either way, his condition would have gone unnamed during his lifetime as Dr. Antoine Marfan, the French pediatrician who first described the condition, didn’t do so until 1896—well after President Lincoln’s untimely death.

Medical Guide to Holiday Movies

Keira Knightly stars in yet another period piece, this time portraying Leo Tolstoy’s beloved, Anna Karenina — a 19th century Russian aristocratic beauty caught in a nasty love triangle.

ENDOMETRITIS

Shortly after giving birth, Karenina experiences a high-grade fever that sends both her lovers to their knees, anticipating the worst. Puerperal fever, or endometritis as it’s now called, was known historically as “the doctor’s plague.” With no concept of germs, doctors often had no reason to wash their hands before attending to births. As such, they often precipitated such post-partum infections, giving thousands of women a simultaneous childbed and deathbed.

Other famous victims include Elizabeth of York, King Henry VIII’s mother, and his third wife, Jane Seymour. It is worth noting that, with the advent of antibiotics and modern-day hygiene, the chances of dying from a post-partum infection today are now incredibly rare.

Medical Guide to Holiday Movies

An all-star cast brings this classic tale of love and loss to the big screen this Christmas Day. And given its historical precedence, we’ll assume we’re not spoiling too much by first announcing Fantine’s death before diving into an explanation of the disease that kills her.

TUBERCULOSIS

Was there ever a more culturally documented medical affliction than consumption, or tuberculosis as it’s known medically? Perhaps not, and that’s why we see so many references to it in popular literature, music and film. Les Miserables is the latest creation to highlight the devastating effects of an infectious disease still commonly seen in third world countries.

TB is a contagious bacterial infection that attacks the lungs and less commonly, other organs. It causes fever, night sweats, weight loss, and sometimes hemetemesis—the coughing up of blood. It’s no wonder that folklore has often associated this disease with vampirism. An article in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology reports that prior to the Industrial Revolution, people interpreted the subsequent deaths of TB patients’ family members as proof that the initial victim was draining them of their lives. In other words, patient zero coughed up blood and therefore, was a vampire.

Today, some countries vaccinate against tuberculosis with a strain of the live, but weakened form of bacteria that infects cows. The vaccine works for only a limited amount of time and its efficacy is limited by geographic region. In the U.S., doctors screen only high risk populations like health care workers and recent immigrants.

Medical Guide to Holiday Movies

Bilbo Baggins returns in this prequel to Lord of the Rings, leading a group of dwarves on a riveting adventure through Middle Earth.

DWARFISM

Is it the hobbits that are really short or the elves that really tall? It’s all relative when it comes to height. If we assume however, that hobbits truly are little people, then it’s safe to say this is a generalized condition that’s associated with upwards of 200 different medical conditions. Either way, the National Institutes of Health defines a dwarf as someone of very short stature — usually under 4’10″ as an adult. Almost 70 percent of all dwarfism cases are due to a condition called achondroplasia, which is a genetic disorder affecting up to 1 in 15,000 people.

Dwarfism itself is not a disease and most little people go on to live healthy, long, and normal lives. Historical prejudice however, often led to their stigmatization as a different kind of being. During the Holocaust, the Nazis went so far as to conduct medical experiments on little people. A shocking example of this was German doctor Josef Mengele’s human zoo — a collection of different looking Jewish prisoners, including a family of dwarves called the Ovitzes.

OBSESSIVE COMPULSIVE DISORDER (OCD)

Greedy little Gollum exhibits the classic signs and symptoms of obsessive compulsive disorder. His obsession with the One Ring is concerning for an all-consuming, socially isolating disorder that nearly 1.5 percent of Americans experience. OCD is an anxiety disorder that causes repetitive, unwanted thoughts or behaviors, often plaguing its victims on a daily basis.

Luckily for patients with OCD, there are many treatment options available. Whether or not Gollum can access these in Middle Earth is an entirely different issue.

Medical Guide to Holiday Movies

Vampires are not real… or are they?

PORPHYRIA

In 1963, an article from the Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine entitled, “On Porphyria and the Aetiology of Werwolves” made the case for real life creatures of the night. The paper argued that these so-called beasts were, in fact, humans suffering from congenital prophyria. It references run-ins with these creatures by Pliny, Herodotus, and Virgil, and even offers photographic evidence of the scarring and mutilated human faces that could easily be mistaken for beast.

In 1985, biochemist David Dolphin furthered this association with his widely popularized scientific paper, “Porphyria, Vampires, and Werewolves: The Aetiology of European Metamorphosis Legends.” Not surprisingly, medical experts criticize this and other references for being both fake and promoting of an anti-porphyria stigma.

Porphyria itself is a disorder of the enzymes involved in red blood cell production. It causes neurologic complications and skin problems when affected people are exposed to light. Photosensitivity, blisters, itching, and swelling are just some of the symptoms that no doubt led to a corollary to vampirism. But if sun causes your skin to peel off, doesn’t it make sense that you’d avoid daylight?

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The Jim Cramer of China

When Hu Bin started his blog in early 2008, he was a skinny 22-year-old college dropout with a perpetually skeptical look on his face and little doubt he’d soon be a household name. The previous year the Shanghai Stock Exchange had been flooded by speculators. For a brief period, it was the second-busiest exchange in the world. It was also beginning a dramatic fall ushered in by the global financial crisis. Hu says he considered the market, considered his audience, and sensed it was time to make his mark. “It really started when Premier Wen Jiabao announced a 4 trillion renminbi rescue plan for the economy,” Hu says. “I knew I just needed to be clever and use this chance of high liquidity in the market to make myself famous.”

Now 26, Hu is China’s most popular online market commentator. His blog has gotten more than 400 million visits. His posts are equal parts outlandish and thoughtful, and employ liberal use of bolded, multicolored text and exclamation points. Hu writes under the name Yerongtian—a character from a real estate-themed Hong Kong soap opera—and has been known to pick fights with other commentators, whom he says suffer from a “lack of emotion.” He has posted at least one picture of cats, and multiple pictures of himself wearing sunglasses to help illustrate his opinions. In 2009 the state-run newspaper China Daily listed him (under his alias) among the 10 people in the nation with the most influence on China’s stock market. “Back then,” Hu says of 2008, “any eccentric behavior would attract people’s attention. If you understood this vital point, you could control people’s minds.”

Hu grew up in Kunming, a southwestern city of 6.4 million that’s far from China’s centers of finance. He learned about the stock market, he says, by watching his mother invest in her spare time. She put money into the market in the 1990s, early days for Chinese investment, and lost it all. “Now she invests her money in gold,” Hu says.

He started at Kunming University, intending to study philosophy and Marxism, but quit, thinking he would take up investing himself. “I was interested in psychology,” he says. “I wanted to know why everyone wanted to bet their future on an uncontrollable thing.”

Hu admits that in the early days of his blog, his knowledge of the market was thinner than it is now. He has always, however, understood his audience and how to keep it interested. Hu’s approach to his blog is purposefully bombastic, earning him vocal critics along with followers. In 2009 he got into a spat with another stock commentator, a man named Hou Ning. Hou, at least according to Chinese news reports from the time, holds the record for the longest nickname of any stock commentator in history—“Commander in Chief of the Stock Market Army.” The two made a 1 million yuan (roughly $ 160,000) bet on the future of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, with Hu wagering it would reach 4000 by the end of the year. It didn’t, and Hu didn’t pay, but he got what he wanted out of the rivalry. “Who would have paid attention to me if I had said 3000?” he asks. “Everyone already knew it would reach 3000.” In 2010 he promised to throw himself off one of Shanghai’s tallest buildings if the SSE Composite Index didn’t reach 5800 by the end of the year. It didn’t: Hu is still with us.

Photograph by Ka Xiaoxi“Chinese investors aren’t as mature as American investors, and I write to meet their immediate needs,” says Hu

Stunts aside, Hu has spent the last four years working through his thinking on the ups and downs of China’s economy in public, slipping thoughtful essays in between bouts of hyperbole. He spent his early days predicting the rise of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and now foresees its continuing decline. One recent headline: “Doomsday Runs Wild, the Stock Market will likely drop 200 points!!” In another post, he explains that a drop in the market may not be bad. It could give the authorities some space to make reforms without worrying about overheating, and help to attract more foreign investment. “The stock market is not only an economic weather vane,” he writes. “It is a political weather vane.”

Hu says he is not a financial rabble-rouser. Most laypeople, he says, should stay away from investing in individual stocks. The people who read his blog, however, are generally not professionals; retail investors make up the majority of the volume of trading in the Chinese market. According to the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission, there are around 72 million retail investors in China, accounting for three-quarters of the trading on domestic exchanges. And according to China’s state media, the majority of these investors have less than 1 million yuan in the market. It’s a group of people Hu says he understands well, even if it means giving sometimes conflicting advice. He may advise them to stay out of the market, but he knows the irresistible pull of equities on the newly wealthy, particularly in a country where there are few opportunities for investment. In effect, he’s giving advice to people he knows probably shouldn’t be in the market but are going to invest anyway.

“The stock market in the United States is managed by regulations,” Hu says. “The Chinese market is managed by humans. Chinese investors aren’t as mature as American investors, and I write to meet their immediate needs.”

Hu’s interest in the human story behind the market sets him apart from other bloggers, at least in his eyes. “They regard their blogs as livelihood, while I take my blog as my friend and pour my emotions and love into it. The emotion is what connects me to the readers—they feel more attached to my words.” The connection is important in part, says Hu, because Chinese investors have been taught that networking can solve anything. Even in the stock market, relationships are the deciding factor. “When it comes to stock investment, Chinese people always try to get inside information from someone within their social network. Americans like to read through financial statements, but Chinese people like to believe that their stocks go up because they have more inside information than anyone else.”

Today, Hu spends most of his time in Beijing, where he moved in 2009. On a recent Sunday, he is drinking tea at one of Beijing’s most expensive hotels, wearing a tie and a tan Calvin Klein puffy jacket that he does not take off. Instead, he stuffs his hands in his jacket pockets while he talks, looking exactly like what he is—a blogger who’s hit it big, though he’s coy about, financially, how big. His sense of humor is also just slightly out of step with the tie. When asked about online nicknames, he says he’s not aware of any and then, unblinking and serious, says: “I prefer the nickname Batman.”

For all his success, Hu still considers blogging a hobby, not a career. “Fame is vanity,” he says, “while investment asks for real competence.” He’s now in the process of raising money for a private equity fund that, over the next few decades, he hopes to build into something like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A). Again, he won’t say how much he’s raised. Although his blog posts are currently predicting dark times, Hu has faith that the Chinese market will recover, and he’s optimistic about the market and the future in general. “New Chinese leaders are going to take over, which will offer China economic opportunity in the following 10 years,” he says. China’s new leader, Xi Jinping, has promised the country will push forward with reforms, something that Hu is excited about. He’s also upbeat about China’s recent leadership transition. Political stability, he says, is a market good. “The opportunity will be mainly in China’s capital market, because it’s still in an initial stage,” he says. “I need to take advantage of this initial stage before everyone realizes there’s a gold mine when the market matures.”

Hilgers is a Bloomberg Businessweek contributor.

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New Zealand level series thanks to Guptill century

EAST LONDON, South Africa (Reuters) – A brilliant, unbeaten century from opener Martin Guptill led New Zealand to an eight-wicket victory off the final ball against South Africa in the second T20 international on Sunday.

Chasing 169 for victory in 19 overs at Buffalo Park, Guptill helped erase the memory of Friday’s embarrassing capitulation to 86 all out in Durban with a stunning batting display as the tourists reached their target for the loss of just two wickets to level the series 1-1.

Requiring 39 from the final four overs and 11 off the last, Guptill was on 97 and needing four for victory when Rory Kleinveldt bowled the final delivery – a low full toss which was eased away through extra cover.

Guptill’s unbeaten 101 was just the third T20 international century by a New Zealander, the first two belonging to captain Brendon McCullum who was almost anonymous with 17 from 15 balls during a second-wicket partnership of 73 with Guptill.

The right-handed opener was similarly dominant during an opening stand of 76 with Rob Nicol (25) as he drove the Proteas attack impeccably straight and displayed the skills – and patience – so obviously missing from the New Zealand batsman in Durban.

Captain Faf du Plessis led from the front once again as South Africa posted a competitive 165-5 in 19 overs after losing the toss and being asked to bat first.

Du Plessis paced his innings to perfection on a tricky pitch to reach 63 from 43 balls with eight fours and a six in a match reduced to 19 overs per side following a 52-minute floodlight failure.

The deciding match takes place in Port Elizabeth on Wednesday.

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Quentin Tarantino unchains America’s tormented past in “Django”

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Twenty years after Quentin Tarantino unveiled his first film “Reservoir Dogs,” the director has turned his eye to America’s slavery history, spinning a blood-filled retribution tale in his trademark style for “Django Unchained.”

Tarantino, 49, has become synonymous with violence and dark humor, taking on the Nazis in “Inglourious Basterds” and mobsters in “Pulp Fiction.”

In “Django Unchained,” to be released in U.S. theaters on Christmas Day, he fuses a spaghetti Western cowboy action adventure with a racially charged revenge tale set in the 19th century, before the abolition of slavery in the United States.

Jamie Foxx stars as a slave whose freedom is bought by a former dentist, played by Christoph Waltz. The two set off as bounty hunters, rounding up robbers and cattle rustlers before turning their attention to brutal plantation owners in America’s Deep South.

Tarantino is well-versed in delivering violence. But the director said he faced “a lot of trepidation” about filming the slavery scenes. He has already come under fire from some critics for the frequent use in the film of the “N-word” – a racial slur directed at blacks.

The director said he was initially hesitant to ask black actors to play slaves who are shackled and whipped, and even considered filming outside of the United States.

But a dinner with veteran Oscar-winning actor Sidney Poitier, whom Tarantino called a “father figure,” changed his mind after Poitier urged him to not “be afraid” of his film.

“This movie is a deep, deep, deep American story, and it needed to be made by an American, and it needed to star Americans. … Lots of the movies dealing with this issue have usually had Brits playing Southerners and it creates this arm’s-distance quality,” Tarantino said.

Much of the film’s more graphic slavery scenes, such as gladiator-style fights to the death and being encased naked in a metal hot box in the heat of the Southern sun, are drawn from real accounts.

“We were shooting on hallowed ground. This was the ground of our ancestors. … Their blood was in the grass, there’s still bits of flesh embedded in the bark,” Tarantino said.

The film has received good reviews from critics and is expected to add Oscar nominations in January to its five Golden Globe nods.

With the exception of Waltz, who plays eccentric German bounty hunter Dr. King Schultz, the majority of the main players are not only American but from the South.

“It seemed sacred to us, and we couldn’t help but channel those emotions, everybody on the crew and on the set. … Those were very moving days,” Tarantino said.

‘DESPICABLE’ CHARACTERS

Tarantino reunited with Waltz, who won an Oscar in 2010 for his role as a menacing Nazi officer in “Inglourious Basterds,” and long-time collaborator Samuel L. Jackson, who plays slave housekeeper Stephen, a character who Tarantino described as “the most despicable black (character)” in movie history.

“Stephen might be frankly the most fascinating character in the whole piece, and it was important to deal with that whole upstairs-downstairs aspect of the Antebellum South,” he said.

The role that has people talking is Leonardo DiCaprio‘s first villainous turn as a racist plantation owner – a stark contrast from his Hollywood heartthrob “Titanic” days and roles as eccentric Americans in “The Aviator” and “J. Edgar.”

Asked how he felt to be the first director to make DiCaprio a villain, Tarantino laughed, saying he felt “pretty darn good about it.” He commended DiCaprio for turning into a “Southern-fried Caligula,” referring to the tyrannical ancient Roman emperor.

“I saw him as a petulant boy emperor. … He has nothing but hedonistic hobbies and vices to indulge him, and it’s almost as if he’s rotting from the inside,” Tarantino said.

The film’s female lead, Django’s wife Broomhilda played by Kerry Washington, moves away from Tarantino’s fierce screen women such as Uma Thurman in “Kill Bill” and Diane Kruger in “Inglourious Basterds.”

Tarantino said Broomhilda was meant to be the “princess in exile.” He said he was “annoyed” when he was asked by a friend why Broomhilda did not exact revenge on her abusers in the same way as Thurman’s “Kill Bill” character. The film, he said, is “Django’s story.”

“It invokes … that odyssey that Django goes on and gives the black slave narrative the romantic dimensions of great opera or great folklore tales,” Tarantino said.

(Editing by Jill Serjeant, Patricia Reaney and Will Dunham)

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South Africa’s Mandela to remain in hospital for Christmas

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – Former South African President Nelson Mandela continues to respond to treatment more than two weeks after being taken to hospital in Pretoria and will remain there for Christmas Day, the presidency said on Monday.

The 94-year-old anti-apartheid hero and Nobel Peace laureate has been treated for a lung infection and gallstones after being hospitalized on December 8.

President Jacob Zuma said in a statement that Mandela “will recover from this episode with all our support… We also humbly invite all freedom loving people around the world to pray for him.”

It will be the first Christmas that Mandela has spent away from home since 1989, when he was still in prison. He was jailed for almost three decades for his role in the struggle against white minority rule.

He was released in 1990 and went on to use his prestige to push for reconciliation between whites and blacks as the bedrock of the post-apartheid “Rainbow Nation”.

Mandela was elected South Africa‘s first black president in 1994. He stepped down five years later after one term in office and has been largely removed from public life for the last decade.

(Reporting and writing by Ed Stoddard; Editing by Stella Mapenzauswa and Tom Pfeiffer)

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Forecasts For 2013 From Around the World

Central Bankers
“We face a broader challenge—to defend the market economy amongst so many who suffered during the financial crisis. This was expressed memorably by William McChesney Martin when he spoke to the Economic Club of New York in 1957. He said, ‘Men begin to question whether the merriment was worth the misery, especially when the misery was worse among the millions who had never got in on the merrymaking in the first place.’ ” —Mervyn King, governor, Bank of England
 
Africa
“Africa remains on course to double its GDP every decade. This will be the decade of infrastructure investment.” —Charles Robertson, chief economist, Renaissance Capital
 
Indonesia
“What matters for Indonesia now is China and Chinese domestic spending.” —Timothy Condon, chief economist, Asia, ING Investment Management in Singapore
 
Russia’s Energy Squeeze
“Russia is OK for now but their system gets shaky two to three years down the road. They’ve been riding a decade of high energy prices, but with all the new oil and gas coming from everywhere, prices will fall. That’ll wipe out Gazprom’s profits. They’re worried about U.S. natural gas exports to Europe. Russia’s days as Europe’s main energy supplier are numbered.” —Anders Aslund, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
 
Argentina
“Investors have been burned before, but I think Argentina’s worst days are behind them. Basically, I don’t think they can mess up any further than they already have.” —Walter Molano, chief economist, BCP Securities
 
China
“Beijing understands that it needs to rebalance away from investment toward household consumption. Next year will be a crucial step toward that, causing growth to slow in the second half. Most importantly, it needs to tighten up credit. That’s going to be hard on the state-owned enterprises that’ve become so dependent on what has essentially been free capital. But China has reached a point where the growth of investment and credit is no longer wealth creating, it’s wealth destroying.” —Michael Pettis, finance professor, Peking University
 
Oil Prices
“Look for more demand weakness and rising supply. In the U.S., we’ve had six straight quarters where GDP rises and petroleum demand falls. We’re finally becoming more energy efficient. On the flip side, we continue to see crude production rising. The latest data has the U.S. producing 6.9 million barrels per day, up 16 percent from 2011. That rate’s not slowing down.” —Tim Evans, energy analyst, Citi Futures Perspective
 
Bullish on East Asia
“We expect quarter four also to be good, and that then feeds into a very strong next year.” —Bert Hofman, World Bank chief economist for East Asia
 
Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
“Abe is going to hit the ground running. He can get broad agreement on a 10 trillion yen ($ 120 billion) stimulus package with infrastructure spending to jolt the economy out of recession. That will add to Japan’s pile of debt, but after you [top 200 percent] of GDP, what’s another 10 trillion yen? —Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies, Temple University
 
U.S. Employment
“So much depends on how quickly people continue to fade from the labor force out of frustration. That could actually bring down the unemployment rate rather quickly without a strong recovery in job growth. A stronger economy might actually hold up that rate longer than a weak one, because people will … jump back in and look for work. But remember, the unemployment rate is murky as a signal for the strength of the economy.” —James Galbraith, economist, University of Texas
 
Chinese Reform
“Xi has signaled he intends to change things. And there are people watching with a billion cell phones.” —Robert Lawrence Kuhn, author of How China’s Leaders Think
 
Temporary Hiring
“I’m beginning to see U.S. companies spend more and make a few more gambles. Give me all the IT, engineers, scientists, trained technicians, machinists you have. In Europe a lack of certainty has caused a halting of behavior. There’s downward pressure in Mexico, Brazil, and China. By no means do I see 2013 as a rock ‘n’ roll year.” —Carl Camden, CEO, Kelly Services
 
Japan-China Tension
“China’s intention to topple the status quo by use of coercion is clear. Does China want to see the Japan-China relations pass the point of no return?” —Japan Foreign Ministry statement
 
U.S. Housing
“We turned bullish on housing in the summer of 2011. Demand is greater than supply. It’s that simple. We, unlike other mature countries, still have people fall in love and get married and have babies. The big driver of demand is adult children moving out of the home. New home inventory is at a record low. [Credit is] more widely available than perceived. We are not complacent. I am a worrier beyond worrier. But it’s exciting right now.” —Ivy Zelman, Zelman & Associates
 
U.K. Economic Forecast
“Growth in the coming year will be just about zero.” —Michael Saunders, economist at Citi Research in London
 
India
“The budget deficit target will be missed. You have slower growth, revenues are weaker, and you still have a high level of subsidies in energy items that cost government money. There is an election that has to be called by May 2014, so there is always a risk you will get populist-type spending measures that could inflate the budget deficit.” —Art Woo, director of sovereigns, Fitch Ratings in Hong Kong
 
U.S. Capital Spending
“There is a lot of pent-up demand for investment spending that we think will get unleashed next year. Businesses have delayed capital projects in anticipation of the fiscal cliff. Capital spending has been notably weak in the last six months, much weaker than during the rest of the recovery. So a political deal, or even just some clarity about the future, could result in a nice bounceback in capital spending after the beginning of the year.” —Jan Hatzius, chief economist, Goldman Sachs
 
Italian Politics
“When people need me, I don’t abstain from acting.” —Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian Prime Minister, on why he’ll be a candidate in the 2013 elections
 
French Tax Rates
“I am leaving, because you consider that success, creativity, talent, anything different, should be sanctioned. I leave after paying, in 2012, an 85 percent tax rate on my income.” —Gérard Depardieu, French actor, on why he’s moving to Belgium
 
Federal Reserve
“Businesses that went right to the brink during the crisis are focused on survival and liquidity. Hopefully, that’s just a matter of healing and time. It’s one reason the Fed wants to be very consistent. If you put together a real consistent year of growth, that might cause companies to invest more.” —Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America, BNP Paribas
 
Data: International Monetary Fund, Fitch, Federal Reserve

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3-day trip becomes 3-week ordeal for 2 Jamaicans

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — It was supposed to be a three-day fishing trip at most. It turned into a three-week ordeal, drifting under an intense sun for hundreds of miles in the Caribbean in a small boat with a broken motor.

The two Jamaican fishermen survived by eating raw fish they caught and drinking water from melted ice they had brought to preserve their catch. The Colombian navy finally plucked them from the sea a week ago and delivered them home Saturday after treating them for severe dehydration, malnutrition and hypothermia.

Everton Gregory, 54, and John Sobah, 58, recounted their story in a telephone interview from Jamaica, while the boat owner and the men’s employer also provided details.

The men set off from Jamaica’s southeastern coast on Nov. 20. The water was glassy, the wind was calm and their boat was laden with 14 buckets of ice, 16 gallons of water and several bags of cereal, bread and fruit.

They headed to Finger Bank, a nearby sand spit 8-miles-long (13-kilometers) that is known for its abundance of fish like wahoo, tuna and mahi mahi. The owner of the 28-foot (8-meter) boat said she usually joins them on fishing trips, but she couldn’t go that afternoon.

After spending a couple of days around Finger Bank, the two men set off for home with their catch. But the boat’s engine soon died. The water was too deep to use the anchor and the current too strong to use the oars, so the boat slowly drifted away from Jamaica.

At first, the men got by on sipping the water and eating the food they brought with them. But days turned into weeks, and they began to eat the fish they had caught and drink the melted ice that had kept it fresh.

Gregory and Sobah kept eating raw fish and used a tarp to try to collect water, but the rain clouds remained at a distance.

Back home, friends and family called police and used their own boats to search the area where the men were last seen. The two fishermen work for the Florida-based nonprofit group Food for the Poor, which chartered a plane to search along Jamaica’s coast.

Marva Espuet, the owner of the boat, said she knew she had packed it with more food and water than needed for a three-day trip, but the thought provided little relief.

“If I had gone, there would have been two boats going,” said the 52-year-old woman, a longtime friend of both fishermen.

With searches proving fruitless, Sobah’s niece grew frantic, recalled Nakhle Hado, a fishing manager for Food for the Poor who helped lead the search. She “begged me that she wanted John back for Christmas,” Hado said.

Hado said some people believed the two men would never be found, but he and others didn’t give up. “My gut was telling me that they were still alive,” he said.

Hado said he had trained Gregory and Sobah on how to survive at sea.

“In case something happens, they don’t have to think twice. They know how to react,” he said. “It’s very important, their mental state.”

Gregory and Sobah finally ran out of fresh water and went several days without drink. A healthy human being can die from dehydration anywhere from three to five days without water.

Then on Dec. 12, a Colombian navy helicopter patrolling off the coast of that South American country spotted the men near Lack of Sleep cay, more than 500 miles (800 kilometers) from where they started. It took two days for a navy vessel to reach them because of bad weather. The men were hospitalized for several days at the Colombian island of San Andres before boarding a plane back home to Jamaica.

“It feels good,” Sobah told the AP in a brief phone interview after arriving.

Gregory said he had lost hope, but Sobah tried to keep him positive that they would be rescued. “I just had that belief,” Sobah said. “I believe in the Creator.”

Yet it is Gregory who plans to keep fishing despite the ordeal because he needs the job.

Sobah said he’s done. “I’m not going to go fishing again. No way.”

Latin America News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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“Hobbit” fever beats Tom Cruise at box office

(Reuters) – The big-budget “Hobbit” fantasy movie ruled movie box office charts for a second straight weekend, fending off Hollywood heavyweight Tom Cruise in new crime drama “Jack Reacher.”

“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” hauled in nearly $ 37 million from theaters in the United States and Canada, according to studio estimates of Friday-through-Sunday ticket sales. The film is the first of three movies based on the classic J.R.R. Tolkien novel about a world of dwarfs, elves and dragons in the fictitious Middle Earth.

In second place, Cruise’s “Jack Reacher” about the investigation into a sniper shooting brought in just short of $ 17 million at U.S. and Canadian theaters. Distributor Paramount Pictures postponed a premiere of the film after the fatal school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, sparked new scrutiny of violent movies.

Adult comedy “This is 40,” starring Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann as a middle-aged couple, brought in $ 12 million, finishing in third place.

“The Hobbit” was distributed by Time Warner Inc’s Warner Bros. studio. Paramount Pictures, a unit of Viacom Inc, released “Jack Reacher.” Comcast Corp’s Universal Pictures distributed “This is 40.”

(Reporting By Lisa Richwine and Andrea Burzynski)

Movies News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Former President George H.W. Bush remains hospitalized

(Reuters) – Former President George H.W. Bush, who has been hospitalized for a month undergoing treatment for bronchitis, may not be released from a Houston hospital in time to celebrate Christmas at home as doctors had hoped.

Bush, 88, remained in stable condition and doctors were optimistic he would make a full recovery, George Kovacik, a spokesman at Methodist Hospital, said in an emailed statement on Sunday.

But doctors were being “extra cautious” with his care and no discharge date had been set, the statement said. Earlier this month, Kovacik said doctors expected Bush would be able to spend Christmas at home with his family.

“His doctors feel he should build up his energy before going home,” the statement said.

Bush, the 41st president and a Republican, took office in 1989 and served one term in the White House. The father of former President George W. Bush, he also is a former congressman, U.N. ambassador, CIA director and vice president for two terms under Ronald Reagan.

(Reporting by Kevin Gray; Editing by Daniel Trotta and Vicki Allen)

Health News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Alcohol fraud rising, say traders

22 December 2012 Last updated at 20:25 ET

By Emma Forde 5 live Investigates

UK tax authorities are not doing enough to tackle alcohol duty fraud, claims a leading off-licence chain.

Bargain Booze told the BBC that the number of stores telling HM Revenue and Customs that they face illegal competition is rising.

Last year HMRC received over 600 reports to its tax hotline relating to alcohol fraud.

The Revenue said it acted on every piece of intelligence, but admitted investigations could take years.

The government has given HMRC £17m to tackle the gangs behind the fraud.

‘Paper event’

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

There are outlets all over the country which are selling at prices we couldn’t get even get close to matching and nobody is stopping them”

End Quote David Visick The Federation of Wholesale Distributors

Alcohol duty fraud in the UK often involves exporting alcohol to the EU – untaxed – and then bringing it back into the UK with false paperwork.

This method exploits EU rules which state duty does not have to be paid on alcohol when it is being transferred between registered producers or wholesalers – it is only paid when it enters the marketplace.

But the BBC’s 5 live Investigates programme has learned that some lorries containing duty-unpaid alcohol meant for export never even leave the UK.

“Increasingly it’s just a paper event – the lorry never goes abroad, so the actual product never leaves the UK. The lorry just stops on a lay-by somewhere and gets turned around,” says Keith Webb, acting managing director of Bargain Booze.

The illicit alcohol ends up in the hands of rogue wholesalers and retailers who then sell it on at prices which legitimate traders say are only possible if duty has been evaded.

A study published by the All Party Parliamentary Beer Group earlier this year, said HMRC estimates up to 1 in 5 cans and bottles of beer sold in the UK is illicit, and beer smuggling could be costing the Treasury around £500m per year in lost duty alone.

Representatives from the alcohol retail industry claim the total cost to the Exchequer could be billions of pounds: “HMRC view the loss of revenue to the Exchequer at £1.2bn, but that excludes wine. Within the trade, the real cost to the Exchequer is viewed as something in excess of £4bn a year,” says Keith Webb.

Illegal off-licences

5 live Investigates visited one suspected illegal wholesaler in the North West of England – a warehouse on an industrial estate. The programme team saw a wide range of alcohol being sold at very low prices, compared to what is offered on the high street.

For example, six bottles of Echo Falls Chardonnay was priced at £16.99 and 24 cans of Foster’s lager was £13.49.

Continue reading the main story

Alcohol duty fraud in the UK

• EU law requires that alcohol can be moved “duty unpaid” between registered warehouses


• Duty becomes payable at the point it enters the market – when it is sold to a non-bonded customer


• HMRC estimates duty fraud accounts for lost legitimate sales in the UK of over £1bn, with beer estimated at around half that total


• HMRC estimates that beer smuggling may be currently costing the Treasury around £500m in lost duty per year


• They believe that at least 1 in 10, and possibly 1 in 5, of all cans and bottles of beer on sale in the UK is duty unpaid


• Once fraudsters have smuggled beer back to the UK it can enter the legitimate supply chain, reappearing undetected alongside duty-paid beer in supermarkets and off-licences


• HMRC believes wine duty fraud is also significant in the UK and the Federation of Wholesale Distributors says its members have seen a decline in sales of an estimated £750m

Source: All-Party Parliamentary Beer Group, Beer Tax Fraud Inquiry, July 2012

A leading legitimate cash-and-carry operator said it could not find beers and wines so cheap even at wholesale prices, let alone match the on-the-shelf price offered to members of the public.

The cash-and-carry owner, who did not want to be named due to fear of reprisal from criminal gangs, says it would have to pay around £19.35 for a box of six bottles of Echo Falls Chardonnay – of that, £11.40 would be duty.

The same amount and brand of lager would cost £16.56, with duty at £9.36 per case.

Another legitimate wholesaler based in the West Midlands told the BBC its beer sales have fallen by around £20m in the last seven years as a direct result of illegal wholesalers operating in the same area.

Another legal retailer in the North West of England said it may stop selling alcohol altogether in the next 10 years because it cannot compete with the illegal trade.

“There are outlets all over the country which are selling at prices we couldn’t even get close to matching and nobody’s stopping them,” says David Visick from The Federation of Wholesale Distributors.

“That’s the responsibility of HMRC, but HMRC is more interested in chasing the problem to the root, to find the big criminals gangs who are behind this.”

Tackling criminal gangs

The BBC has been told one wholesaler suspected of alcohol fraud has been reported to HMRC over 30 times in the last 18 months – yet is still operating.

Continue reading the main story

5 live Investigates

Listen to the full report on 5 live Investigates on Sunday, 23 December at 21:00 GMT.

Sixteen people were convicted of alcohol fraud between 2009/2010, according to HMRC figures, and 40 civil penalties have been issued this year.

“We could chalk up a cricket score of prosecutions of small players and pawns in the organisations and that would make our outputs look good,” says Andy Leggett, HMRC’s deputy director of alcohol, tobacco & gambling taxes.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

Every single piece of intelligence is acted upon, but that does not necessarily mean we will go and knock on that specific door in the next week”

End Quote Andy Leggett HMRC

“But the reality is, that would have zero impact on the fraud because those people would be replaced within days.”

The government has allocated £917m to HMRC to tackle tax avoidance, evasion and criminal attack over the next four years – £17m of that is to specifically target the organised criminal gangs behind alcohol fraud.

“Every single piece of intelligence is acted upon, but that does not necessarily mean we will go and knock on that specific door in the next week,” says Andy Leggett. “That may lead to an investigation many years down the track or may lead to an investigation elsewhere.”

Mr Leggett says HMRC is determined to tackle the criminal gangs, but disrupting their trade takes time. Enforcement officers will use criminal prosecutions and civil penalties to dismantle the illicit trade, but he acknowledges the frustration felt by other traders operating lawfully.

Earlier this year, HMRC smashed a £50m-a-year alcohol tax evasion scam – the biggest uncovered. The gang imported beers and wines from France duty-free for onward export, but the stock never left the UK and was diverted for sale without taxes and duties being paid. The ringleader, Kevin Burrage, was jailed for 10 years.

You can listen to the full report on 5 live Investigates on Sunday, 23 December, at 21:00 GMT on BBC 5 live. Listen again via the 5 live website or by downloading the 5 live Investigates podcast.

BBC News – Business

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