Bomb shakes Damascus, opposition holds unity talks

AMMAN (Reuters) – A bomb exploded near army and security compounds in Damascus, Syrian television reported, and fractured opposition groups seeking to topple President Bashar al-Assad began unity talks abroad to win international respect and arms supplies.

The 50-kilogram (110-pound) bomb, near a large hotel in a heavily guarded district, was described by state media as an attack by “terrorists” – the government’s term for insurgents in the 19-month-old uprising against Assad.

Opposition activists said Sunday’s blast appeared to be the work of the Ahfad al-Rasoul (Grandsons of the Prophet) Brigade, an Islamist militant unit that attacked military and intelligence targets several times in the last two months.

The mainly Sunni rebels have carried out a series of bombings targeting government and military buildings in Damascus this year, extending the war into the seat of Assad’s power.

The Syrian conflict has aggravated divisions in the Islamic world, with Shi’ite Iran supporting Assad — whose Alawite faith derives from Shi’ite Islam — and U.S.-allied Sunni nations such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar backing his foes.

The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an activist monitoring group, said government forces had killed 179 people on Sunday. It said most of the dead were civilians killed in shelling of Damascus suburbs and included 14 women and 20 children. The rest were rebels killed in battles in the capital and the northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo.

Opposition campaigners said the Syrian army shelled rebel positions inside a Palestinian refugee camp on the edge of Damascus on Sunday, killing at least 20 people. They said the Yarmouk camp had become the latest battleground in the war.

In northern Idlib, opposition sources said rebels were forced to halt an offensive to take a big air base because of a shortage of ammunition, a problem that has dogged their campaign to cement a hold on the north by eliminating Assad’s devastating edge in firepower.

Islamist insurgents had launched the attack on the Taftanaz military airport at dawn on Saturday, using rocket launchers and at least three tanks captured from the military.

The Syrian government restricts journalists’ access in Syria, making it difficult to verify reports from the ground.

The Jaafar bin Tayyar Division, a rebel unit in Deir al-Zor, said its fighters had taken control of the al-Ward oilfield near the Iraqi border on Sunday, after overrunning a loyalist outpost that had 40 militiamen defending it.

Rebel commanders, former Syrian officials and the Syrian head of an oil services company familiar with oil production in the area said the fields, mostly not operational, had been under de facto rebel control for months.

FEARS OF WIDER CONFLAGRATION

The conflict began with peaceful protest rallies that morphed into armed revolt when Assad, whose family has ruled Syria since 1971, tried to stamp them out with military might. About 32,000 people have been killed, wide swathes of the major Arab state have been wrecked and the civil war threatens to widen into a regional sectarian conflagration.

The opposition talks that began in Qatar marked the first concerted attempt to meld feuding, disparate groups based abroad and coordinate strategy with rebels fighting in Syria.

Divisions between Islamists and secularists as well as between those inside Syria and opposition figures based abroad have foiled prior attempts to forge a united opposition and deterred Western powers from intervening militarily.

Analysts were skeptical the planned four days of opposition talks in the Qatari capital Doha would bring immediate results.

They aim to broaden the Syrian National Council (SNC), the largest of the overseas-based opposition groups, from some 300 members to 400, to pave the way for talks in Doha on Thursday including other anti-Assad factions to crystallise a coalition.

“The main aim is to expand the council to include more of the social and political components. There will be new forces in the SNC,” Abdulbaset Sieda, current leader of the Syrian National Council, told reporters in Doha ahead of the meeting.

The meetings would also elect a new executive committee and leader for the SNC, he said.

A Qatar-based security analyst, who asked not to be named, said the meetings would bring a small step forward, at most. “The Syrian National Council is just too divided,” he said.

In Cairo, the international mediator on Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, called on Sunday for world powers to issue a U.N. Security Council resolution based on a deal they reached in June to set up a transitional Syrian government.

But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking at the same news conference, dismissed the need for a resolution and said others were stoking violence by backing rebels. His comments highlighted the impasse over Syria’s civil war.

Russia and China, both permanent council members, have vetoed three Western-backed U.N. draft resolutions condemning Assad’s government for the violence. The other three permanent members are the United States, Britain and France.

(Additional reporting by Rania el Gamal and Regan Doherty in Qatar, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman; Editing by Philippa Fletcher and Stephen Powell)

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EU boosts radio spectrum for superfast mobile services

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – The European Commission is to release a swathe of radio spectrum to give mobile and internet companies more space for rolling out faster fourth-generation (4G) wireless services.

Monday’s announcement means an extra 120 MHz of spectrum will be available for 4G from 2014 at the latest to try to accommodate a sharp rise in the use of such services on mobile devices.

The radio spectrum, used by all wireless technologies for sending and receiving information, is becoming increasingly crowded as mobile demand adds to TV and radio broadcasting in using a resource also needed by emergency services and military telecommunications.

Industry estimates put growth in global mobile data traffic at 26 percent annually by 2015. According to networking firm Cisco Systems, mobile data traffic volumes in the European Union are expected to increase by more than 90 percent each year for the next 5 years.

Superfast 4G mobile communications allow the use of data-heavy services such as video conferencing.

“This extra spectrum for 4G in Europe means we can better meet the changing and growing demand for broadband,” said Neelie Kroes, European Union Commissioner for digital policy.

Freeing up additional spectrum would also help the EU address competition from countries such as the United States and Japan, where wireless services are among the world’s fastest.

“The EU will enjoy up to twice the amount of spectrum for high speed wireless broadband as in the United States,” the Commission said in a statement.

Companies that own parts of the radio wave spectrum bought after liberalization in the 1990s consider the resource among their most valuable assets and many are reluctant to share.

But in September the Commission pushed telecoms firms to share the radio frequencies they use for mobile and broadband services as space runs out.

(Reporting By Claire Davenport; Editing by Louise Heavens)

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“Political Animals” won’t get a second run on USA

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – “Political Animals” has not been elected to a second term.

The USA Network miniseries from “Brothers & Sisters” executive producer Greg Berlanti and starring Sigourney Weaver as a divorced former First Lady turned Secretary of State, won’t be returning to the network.

The news isn’t terribly surprising, as “Political Animals” was conceived as a miniseries, but the project marked an ambitious jump for USA.

“We are proud of ‘Political Animals,’ our miniseries that attracted critical acclaim and impacted the cultural conversation this summer,” a spokeswoman for USA told TheWrap in a network statement. “It was a pleasure to work with Greg Berlanti and Laurence Mark and a powerful cast led by Sigourney Weaver. We look forward to collaborating again with these immensely talented creatives.”

“Political Animals” premiered July 15 — a night that also saw the highly anticipated Season 5 premiere of AMC’s “Breaking Bad” – and grabbed 3.8 million total viewers in Live Plus 7 Day ratings, which takes into account DVR viewings. Over its six-episode run, the miniseries averaged 3.2 million total viewers in Live Plus 7 Day.

Deadline first reported the news of “Political Animals” not returning.

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Even fit baby boomers won’t escape heart problems

CHICAGO (AP) — Here’s a reality check for health-conscious baby boomers: Even among those in good shape, at least 1 in 3 will eventually develop heart problems or have a stroke.

The upside is that that will happen about seven years later than for their less healthy peers.

The findings come in an analysis of five major studies involving nearly 50,000 adults aged 45 and older who were followed for up to 50 years.

The best odds are in the healthiest adults — those who don’t smoke, have diabetes, high blood pressure or high cholesterol. Still, among 55-year-olds in that category, about a third can expect to develop heart or other cardiovascular problems as they age.

Dr. Vincent Bufalino, a Chicago area cardiologist and spokesman for the American Heart Association, said the study is “a wake-up call that this disease is very prevalent in the United States and even if you’re doing a good job, you’re not immune.”

The researchers estimated risks older people face for developing these ailments in their lifetime, or by their 80s or 90s. They also estimated how many years they’ll live free of heart disease and related problems, depending on the most common risk factors.

Pooling follow-up data from the five analyzed studies, the researchers found that the healthiest 45-year-olds lived up to 14 years longer free of heart ailments than those with at least two risk factors. The healthiest 55-year-olds lived up to about seven years longer than their less healthy peers.

The study was published online Monday in the Journal of the American Medical Association and released in connection with the American Heart Association conference meeting in Los Angeles. The National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute paid for the research.

The authors estimated higher lifetime risks than previous studies, but their analysis involved a broader range of ailments, including heart failure and strokes.

While prevalence of heart disease and related deaths have declined nationwide in recent years, more than 82 million Americans — roughly one-third — have some form of cardiovascular disease, according to the American Heart Association.

Most people in the analysis had high blood pressure or at least one of the other risk factors.

The results shouldn’t be discouraging, said lead author Dr. John Wilkins, an assistant professor of preventive medicine and cardiology at Northwestern University’s medical school in Chicago. Maintaining an optimal lifestyle, by eating sensibly and staying active, is still the best way to live a long, healthy life, he said.

Heart disease remains the nation’s leading cause of death, and the study reinforces the idea that “cardiovascular disease is part of the aging process,” said Cleveland Clinic heart specialist Dr. David Frid, who was not involved in the research. Bodies wear out, “and ultimately, just exposure to living is going to cause people to develop some of these underlying problems,” Frid said.

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Online:

JAMA: http://jama.ama-assn.org

American Heart Association: http://www.heart.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Wall Street ticks lower ahead of presidential vote

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks slipped in low volume on Monday as traders awaited Tuesday’s U.S. election to place bets on sectors seen performing better under one or the other political party.

Democratic President Barack Obama and his challenger, Republican Mitt Romney, sprinted through key states on the last day of the race for the White House. Investors also eyed congressional races to gauge how the United States will deal with the $ 600 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes that could kick in next year and send the economy reeling.

“People are pausing ahead of the election and what that means for the fiscal cliff,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis.

Leading world economies pressed the United States on Sunday to act decisively to avert the fiscal cliff, calling it the biggest short-term threat to global growth.

The market’s reaction to data showing the pace of growth in the U.S. services sector slowed modestly in October was muted. Data from the Institute for Supply Management showed new orders slipped, but employment improved.

Paulsen said economic data could soon start to show the impact of superstorm Sandy on the economy after battering the U.S. northeast.

A week after Sandy wreaked havoc on New York City and the surrounding area, close to 2 million people still have no power as cold weather sets in. On Sunday 30,000 to 40,000 people in New York City were in need of shelter.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 47 points, or 0.36 percent, to 13,046.16. The S&P 500 <.SPX> dropped 5.43 points, or 0.38 percent, at 1,408.77. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> was down 2.82 points, or 0.09 percent, at 2,979.31.

Transocean Ltd reported a higher-than-expected adjusted profit for the third quarter and its shares were up 5.4 percent at $ 48.55.

Stifel Financial Corp shares gained 1.9 percent to $ 32.50. KBW Inc climbed 7.3 percent to $ 17.49 after Stifel said it would buy the smaller rival in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $ 575 million to form an investment bank focused on the financial services industry.

A private survey of China’s growing services sector slipped in October, with weaker-than-expected new orders injecting a note of caution after three previous PMI surveys for October showed the world’s second-largest economy regaining momentum.

Greece’s government will present a new austerity package to parliament on Monday, facing a week of strikes and protests over proposals which must win deputies’ approval if the country is to secure more aid and stave off bankruptcy.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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Brazil’s ‘pop-star priest’ gets mammoth new stage

SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazil‘s “pop-star priest” is already packing in the crowds at the newly opened mammoth sanctuary that he built for his campaign to stem the exodus of faithful from the Roman Catholic Church in Latin America’s biggest nation.

Brazil still has more Catholics than any other country in the world, with about 65 percent of its 192 million people identifying themselves that way in the 2010 census. But that is down from 74 percent in 2000 and is the lowest since records began tracking religion 140 years ago.

That’s where Father Marcelo Rossi‘s Mother of God sanctuary comes in. The not-yet-finished structure will seat 6,000 people and have standing room for 14,000 more, church leaders say. In addition, the grounds outside can hold 80,000 people who could watch Mass on outdoor video screens.

After the inaugural Mass on Friday attracted upward of 50,000 people, a beaming Rossi told reporters: “They couldn’t all fit in. There was a crowd that had to stand outside! That’s a sign we’re on the right path, and it’s this sanctuary.”

Similar numbers jammed into the huge church Saturday.

It’s a fitting stage for Rossi, a Latin Grammy-nominated singer who is known for tossing buckets of holy water on worshippers and performing rollicking Christian songs backed by a blasting live band during Mass.

The church sits on 323,000 square feet (30,000 square meters) of land. Church officials declined to confirm how big the actual building is, though local reports put it at 91,500 square feet (8,500 square meters). That would make it one of the world’s 10 biggest churches. A cross soaring 138 feet (42 meters) into the air is the focal point.

The Mother of God sanctuary is anything but traditional. Designed by noted Brazilian architect Ruy Ohtake, it has a wide-open layout giving it the feel of a warehouse. Concrete walls hold up a sloping blue roof that from the outside looks more like a basketball arena than a house of worship. With the church several years away from completion, white plastic chairs were in the place of pews for a lucky few thousand to grab a seat. The rest had to stand.

Rossi dismisses the idea his huge church is a response to the explosion of the evangelical Christian faith in Brazil. Rather, the priest seems to be battling what recent studies indicate is Catholicism’s biggest enemy: indifference.

While millions of Brazilian Catholics joined Pentecostal congregations in the 1990s, a study conducted last year by Brazil’s Getulio Vargas Foundation based on census data found that the Catholics leaving the church these days are mostly becoming nonreligious. Experts have said the trend of Brazilians deciding organized religion isn’t for them poses a more potent threat to Catholic leaders than losses to the Pentecostals.

Rossi chose to open his new church on the Brazilian holiday of Finados, the nation’s version of the Day of the Dead. “A day, a day that was dead, was transformed!” the priest told worshippers during the service, using his gold-plated microphone.

The “pop-star priest” is seen by Brazilian Catholicism as its biggest weapon against the lack of interest, and his new sanctuary adds to his tools of best-selling books and music recordings to keep worshippers interested in what many complain has become a staid institution.

There was nothing stale about his Mass on Friday.

Singing as loud as they could, waving white hankies and swaying with a rocking band, the 20,000 people who jammed into the Mother of God sanctuary hammed it up for TV cameras and shed tears down their cheeks as their superstar priest waved to them from the pulpit. An estimated 30,000 other people had gathered outside, where young boys climbed up into nearby trees trying to get a glimpse of the church grounds as they squinted over a sea of heads streaming out of the sanctuary.

“We have problems, everyone has problems,” worshipper Zuleima de Oliveira Sales said as she stood in the tightly packed sea of people under the soaring blue roof of the structure, her voice choking. “They don’t come to an end, but I have faith, I have faith in Our Lady.”

That’s the sort of belief the Catholic Church is counting on in Brazil and other developing nations. Leaders from the Vatican on down are looking to them as bulwarks against losses in Europe and the U.S., where sex abuse scandals have inspired many people to leave the church. About half of the world’s Catholics live in Latin America.

Pentecostalism was once seen as a major threat to Brazil’s Catholic Church. Pentecostal churches, many of them founded by U.S. evangelicals, saw their membership double to more than 12 percent of the country’s population over the 1990s, with about half of the congregants estimated to be former Catholics.

During the 1990s, Brazil’s economy suffered from hyperinflation and other woes, and Pentecostal churches aggressively recruited in the slums and poor outskirts of Brazil’s cities by offering nuts-and-bolts self-improvement advice as well as Christian ministry.

Since 2003, however, Pentecostal churches have seen growth slow. The percentage of Brazilians calling themselves Pentecostals edged up from 12.5 percent of the population to 13.3 percent.

Yet the Catholic Church has continued to lose parishioners, and church leaders have had little success so far in halting that trend.

Brazil was the first nation outside Europe that Pope Benedict XVI visited, during a five-day tour in 2007 largely aimed at stopping losses in Latin America. During the trip, the pope canonized Brazil’s first native-born saint.

Then Benedict announced last August during the church’s World Youth Day, which drew 1.5 million people to Spain, that the next version of the gathering would be held in Rio de Janeiro in 2013. The pope is expected to attend.

For now, Rossi hopes his big church will bring together tens of thousands of faithful for every Mass, giving new energy to the Catholic faith.

“People want big spaces. They want grand places for prayer,” he told the Globo TV network. “One candle illuminates, 10 candles illuminate — and 100,000 candles light up so much more.”

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Tweet tastefully, dress like 007 with UK style guides

LONDON (Reuters) – Should you keep your mobile phone on display at lunch? Can you tweet with taste and how does James Bond maintain that polished look in those dashing dinner jackets?

Two new guides from British etiquette authority Debrett‘s offer modern men some time-honored tips on shoe care and shaving alongside 21st century advice on how to handle your mobile phone, email punctuation and an answer for any modern digital Hamlet: “To tweet or not to tweet?”

The sartorial bible “Men’s Style” includes advice on formal wear and tailoring traditions as well as how to mix and match casual clothing, picking the right aftershave and “essential” advice on maintaining luxuriant beards and moustaches.

“Netiquette” helps navigate the dos and don’ts of the digital age with useful suggestions on mobile phone use, golden rules for emails and texting faux pas. It demystifies technical terminology, offers ways to protect your privacy and advice on getting your Twitter persona just right.

“Men’s Style is packed with subtle advice and practical hints to help the modern man to appear effortlessly stylish, while at a time when web-based communication is threatening to take over all our lives, Netiquette is an indispensable guide on how to deal with every digital dilemma,” Debrett’s Managing Editor Jo Bryant said in a statement.

Both guides are part of a series of titles, which include “Debrett’s People of Today”, listing people of distinction and achievement, “A Guide to Civilized Separation” and “Debrett’s A-Z of Modern Manners”.

Besides its modern-day etiquette and grooming guides, Debrett’s has been the indispensible record of the British aristocracy for centuries, tracking the fortunes of titled families since the late 18th century.

(Reporting by Paul Casciato)

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Foxx, Wonder among stars honoring Eddie Murphy

LOS ANGELES (AP) — However riotous the Eddie Murphy stories from Arsenio Hall, Tracy Morgan, Adam Sandler and Russell Brand, the highlight of Spike TV‘s tribute to Eddie Murphy was the comedian’s duet with Stevie Wonder.

Murphy joined the subject of one of his most classic impressions for a rousing rendition of Wonder’s 1973 hit “Higher Ground” during the taping of the Spike TV special “Eddie Murphy: One Night Only,” which is set to air Nov. 14. The Roots served as the house band.

Jamie Foxx, Tyler Perry, Martin Lawrence, Chris Rock and Keenan Ivory Wayans were also among those paying tribute to Murphy Saturday at the Saban Theater.

Accompanied by a pretty blonde, Murphy beamed throughout the two-hour program Saturday, saying he was touched by the tribute.

“I am a very, very bitter man,” he said with a beguiling smile. “I don’t get touched easily, and I am really touched.”

Morgan called Murphy “my comic hero” and came onstage wearing a replica of Murphy’s red leather suit from his standup show “Delirious.”

“He set the tone for the whole industry a long time ago,” Morgan said before Saturday’s tribute. “He inspired me in a fearless way.”

Sandler said he was still in high school when he first saw “Delirious,” which he described as “one of the most legendary standup specials of all time.”

“Everybody on the planet wanted to be Eddie,” he said. “He funnier than us. He’s cooler than any of us.”

Samuel L. Jackson said Murphy “changed the course of American film history” by giving Jackson his first speaking role on the big screen, in 1988′s “Coming to America.”

“If it weren’t for Eddie, we might not have all the wonderful films that I’ve made,” Jackson said.

“He is a true movie star,” Jackson continued, lauding Murphy’s performance in “48 Hours” and “Beverly Hills Cop.” ”You became an inspiration for all young African-American actors.”

The program featured clips of Murphy’s standup shows, his film appearances in “Shrek” and “Nutty Professor” and his work on “Saturday Night Live.”

Murphy insisted before the tribute that he is retired.

“I’m just a retired old song and dance man,” he said, adding that he only makes rare appearances these days. “That’s what you do when you’re retired: You come out every now and then and talk about the old days.”

The 51-year-old entertainer took the stage at the conclusion of the tribute to say that he was moved by the honor.

“This is really a touching moving thing, and I really appreciate it,” he said. “You know what it’s like when you have something like this? You know when they sing happy birthday to you? It’s like that for, like, two hours… and I am Eddied out.”

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Follow AP Entertainment Writer Sandy Cohen on Twitter at www.twitter.com/APSandy.

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Saudi confirms third case of newly discovered SARS-like virus

ABU DHABI (Reuters) – A Saudi citizen in the capital Riyadh is the world’s third confirmed case of a newly discovered SARS-related virus but he has now recovered from his illness, the official Saudi Press Agency reported on Sunday.

The potentially deadly novel coronavirus is from the same family as SARS but had only been confirmed in two previous cases: a 60-year-old Saudi man who died earlier this year, and a man from Qatar who was treated in a London hospital.

Saudi authorities conducted tests on the new case in the Health Ministry and then sent abroad a sample which tested positive, the agency said, citing a statement from the ministry.

“The patient received the appropriate treatment and has recovered,” the agency quoted the ministry as stating, adding that the man had not left Riyadh.

The World Health Organisation put out a global alert in September on the virus, but later added that it did not appear to spread easily from person to person.

Coronaviruses also include strains that cause the common cold as well as SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which emerged in China in 2002 and killed around a tenth of the 8,000 people it infected worldwide.

Saudi Arabia had taken precautions to prevent the disease spreading among Muslim pilgrims during the annual Haj pilgrimage which took place at the end of October.

Millions of Muslims from 160 countries flock to Mecca and Medina during the Haj season to perform the annual religious ritual and Saudi Arabia had said at the time it was taking preventative measures to stop the virus from spreading.

(Reporting By Maha El Dahan; Editing by Angus McDowall in Riyadh; Editing by Stephen Powell)

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How Romney Can Win Pennsylvania

If public polls of battleground states are accurate, Mitt Romney doesn’t have a viable path to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House. To expand the map, he’s making a late push for Pennsylvania with a campaign stop on Sunday. Why Pennsylvania? It’s a Midwestern state. He hasn’t been pummeled by ads there. And Pennsylvania’s 2o electoral votes would make up for Ohio’s 18 that Romney needs but appears on track to lose. But there’s a reason he didn’t try earlier: Obama won it 54-44 in 2008.

Still, Republicans can and do thrive there. Romney’s runner-up for the GOP nomination, Rick Santorum, was a two-term Pennsylvania senator, and the governor, Tom Corbett, is also a Republican. To find out how Romney could win, I called John Brabender, strategist for both men.

For Romney to win, Brabender said, four things would have to fall into place. First, turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia would need to disappoint. That’s not inconceivable. “Anecdotally, there doesn’t seem to be the same enthusiasm that there was four years ago,” he said. “I’ve talked to a number of Democrats on the ground in Philadelphia and think the assumption is that no one thought it would be in play, so they never did the ground work you need to do.” But neither did Republicans.

Second, Romney would need to perform well in the collar counties of Philadelphia, which have a large number of pro-choice, moderate women who will support the right kind of Republican. This is one of the state’s two distinct blocs of swing voters. “Romney needs to pick up a decent share of those votes,” says Brabender, “and to do that, he’ll have to be seen as more moderate than some previous Republican candidates, such as President Bush.”

Third, Romney would need to win the other swing bloc, conservative male Democrats concentrated in the Western part of the state around Pittsburgh, Johnstown, and Erie. Once known as “Reagan Democrats,” they’re older, blue-collar, and socially conservative. “They’re the type of people who cling to their guns and religion, as Obama put it, and wear that as a badge of honor, not as a criticism,” Brabender says. Culturally speaking, Romney isn’t their ideal candidate. “That’s where the battle is raging over the ’47 percent’ tape. If you think of the election like ‘It’s a Wonderful Life,’ Obama’s trying to make Romney into Mr. Potter and Romney’s trying to present himself as George Bailey. [Winning this bloc] could hinge on which character they decide Romney really is.”

Fourth, Romney needs to win (probably overwhelmingly) the 12 percent of voters that Brabender says are true independents and generally vote against the party in power.

One advantage Romney has in Pennsylvania is that it has one of oldest populations in the country. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) often competes with counties in Florida for that honor. Romney performs best with elderly voters — and could perform even better here. “Normally, the Democrats would have run a month’s worth of television saying Republicans were coming to destroy Medicare and Social Security,” Brabender says. “But because Pennsylvania hasn’t been targeted, that air war hasn’t happened. So I don’t think you’ll see as much of a dent in the Republican’s armor from seniors.”

To understand what kind of Republicans do and don’t win in Pennsylvania, Brabender pointed to 2000. Rick Santorum was reelected by six points, while George W. Bush lost by six points. Santorum won 25 percent of Democrats — mainly the Western Democrats Bush couldn’t carry. In 2006, Santorum won only 8 percent of Democrats, and lost his bid for re-election.

Based on public and private polling data, Brabender believes that Pennsylvania is “a 3- or 4-point race.” (A Public Policy Polling survey released Saturday night had Obama up 52-46.) There is a path to victory, he says, but it’s a difficult one. “All those things have to come true for Romney to win,” he says. Even if they do, Republican presidential candidates have a history of disappointment. “Pennsylvania often looks better than it is,” he says, “and then, at the end, it changes.”

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